AGOA: Ramaphosa prepares South Africa for loss of US market access, 125,000 jobs at stake

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has asked his compatriots to prepare for the loss of their country's preferential access to the US market, Africanews reported on October 20, 2026. He described the impact of such a decision as "devastating," while calling for calm and urging against panic.

A US program, a US decision

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) allows eligible African countries to export to the United States duty-free. The mechanism expired in September 2025, before being retroactively extended until the end of 2026, and then renewed for two years until the end of 2028 by Congress, according to the South African media outlet BusinessTech. This extension is still awaiting Donald Trump's signature.

However, the survival of the program does not guarantee the eligibility of individual countries: this is reviewed annually by the White House. According to Africanews, an exclusion of South Africa would take effect on January 1 and is expected to be announced no later than November 2, 2026.

The figures of dependency

Estimates from the automotive sector cited by Africanews suggest approximately 86,000 jobs are directly linked to the agreement, and 125,000 when including subcontractors. The Solidarity union and economists cited by BusinessTech in September 2026 suggest a broader order of magnitude, with around half a million jobs affected across the entire South African economy.

Dependency is also evident in trade flows: South Africa accounts for 54% of exports made under AGOA to the United States since the program's launch, and approximately 22% of its own sales to the US market benefit from it, amounting to some 300 billion rand in goods between 2019 and 2024, according to the same source.

A political standoff

The context is tense. Washington has announced visa restrictions targeting South African officials in connection with legislation on Black Economic Empowerment (BEE), expropriation, and rural security, BusinessTech recalls, and US Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell has mentioned a series of escalation measures. Pretoria, for its part, is seeking new markets to cushion the blow.

The case illustrates a long-standing fragility in Africa-West trade: a preference granted unilaterally remains unilaterally revocable, and tens of thousands of African families depend on it. Jervin Naidoo of Oxford Economics, cited by BusinessTech, nevertheless points out that the United States also has an interest in keeping South Africa, for its critical minerals and as a counterweight to Chinese trade.

Washington's response is expected in the first few days of November 2026. It will determine whether one of the most structuring trade agreements for the continent is still being negotiated, or if it is now being decided without its beneficiaries.