Cobalt: Despite Kinshasa's quotas, prices fell by 31% in the third quarter of 2026

The price of cobalt hydroxide, the form in which the Democratic Republic of Congo exports the bulk of its metal, fell by 31% in the third quarter of 2026, according to a report published on October 1 by the Ecofin Agency. The price per tonne fell to $39,140 on September 29, down from $56,300 on July 1, representing a drop of more than 30% in the month of September alone.

The decline is all the more notable given that Kinshasa had specifically implemented a mechanism intended to support prices. Following the export embargo decreed in February 2025, the Congolese authorities introduced a quota system, which came into effect in mid-October 2025.

A ceiling of 96,600 tonnes

For 2026, the authorized volume was set at 96,600 tonnes of cobalt metal equivalent: 87,000 tonnes as a base quota and 9,600 tonnes as a strategic reserve, distributed by the Regulatory and Control Authority for Strategic Mineral Substances Markets (ARECOMS), according to the analysis published by Mysteel.

For comparison, the DRC produced 100,015 tonnes in 2025. Shipments in the first half of 2026 reached 41,139 tonnes, following 17,053 tonnes in the first quarter and 24,086 tonnes in the second, according to the Ecofin Agency. It is this acceleration in deliveries, in the face of sluggish demand from battery manufacturers, that has weighed on prices.

Who really holds the tap

This is the Congolese paradox. The country supplies the largest share of the world's cobalt, but only six groups—including China's CMOC, Switzerland's Glencore, and ERG—held approximately 79% of the allocated quotas, notes Mysteel. In other words, the sovereignty tool designed in Kinshasa is being implemented by a handful of multinationals, and Mysteel warned as early as October 2025 that the power to set prices risked shifting toward quota holders rather than Congolese producers.

The lesson goes beyond cobalt. Reducing volumes is not enough to regain control when refining and marketing take place elsewhere: the DRC exports a chemical intermediate, not cathodes or batteries. Local processing, regularly announced by Kinshasa, remains the only lever that creates lasting value.

The next steps will play out on two fronts: the 2027 quotas, which ARECOMS must calibrate, and the cobalt deficit that market analysts anticipate in the medium term, according to the Ecofin Agency. Such a deficit generally supports prices—provided that Congolese volumes do not, once again, absorb it.