Ethiopia: Government-allied forces claim near-total control of Tigray

On October 1, 2026, the commander of the Tigray Peace Forces (TPF), an armed group allied with the Ethiopian federal government, claimed that the forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) had been "annihilated," asserting near-total control of the region. Al Jazeera, which reported these remarks, noted that this claim could not be independently verified.

TPLF President Debretsion Gebremichael acknowledges that federal forces are occupying certain areas, but insists that his fighters will counter-attack "in due time," according to Al Jazeera. Two conflicting narratives are emerging from a region of six to seven million inhabitants, where information is trickling out slowly.

Mekelle empties, Afar trapped

On the ground, thousands of residents have fled Mekelle, the regional capital, as government troops approach. Tigrayan forces have seized the airports in Axum and Shire. In the neighboring Afar region, approximately 80,000 people are trapped by fighting in the towns of Erebti and Abaala, reports Al Jazeera.

The war has also reached the federal capital: explosions were heard in Addis Ababa on October 1, 2026, following the authorities' ban on all drone flights. Diplomatic sources cited by Reuters mention several drone strikes, some of which targeted military headquarters.

An alliance of seven armed groups

Fighting resumed in September 2026. On September 20, seven armed groups sealed an alliance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate. The previous conflict in Tigray, between 2020 and 2022, resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

The diplomatic front collapsed in two days: Addis Ababa ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours and announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara, accusing Eritrea of "acts of hostility," which the latter denies. Eritrea, in turn, severed its relations with Ethiopia on October 2, 2026. The two countries share more than 800 kilometers of border with Tigray.

The risk of a regional conflagration

Interviewed by Al Jazeera, researcher Ahmed Soliman (Chatham House) and academic Laura Hammond (SOAS, London) point to a real danger of the conflict spreading, particularly toward neighboring Sudan, which is already at war. The Sudanese army accuses Ethiopia of supporting its rebels; Addis Ababa rejects these accusations.

The African Union is calling for "maximum restraint" and denouncing the cross-accusations between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt. The Horn of Africa is currently the epicenter of three intertwined crises—Tigray, Eritrea, and Sudan—the cost of which is primarily paid by civilians deprived of water, medical care, and information.