IMF: 4.5% growth expected in sub-Saharan Africa, but bilateral aid has fallen by a quarter in one year

The International Monetary Fund expects 4.5% growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2026 and 2027, according to the October 2026 update of its regional outlook, "Resilient Growth, Clouded Outlook," reported on October 15 by the Ecofin Agency. The 2026 forecast has been raised by 0.2 percentage points compared to April.

Behind the average, the disparities are clear. Oil-exporting countries are expected to grow by 4.1%, other resource-rich economies by 3.8%, and countries less dependent on raw materials by 6%, down from 6.4% in 2025. South Africa remains at 1.0%, reports the South African newspaper IOL.

Aid is falling faster than debt

This is the other half of the picture. Bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa fell by about a quarter in 2025, and the OECD anticipates a further 12% decline in 2026. Meanwhile, the cost of money has risen: the yield on ten-year US bonds rose from 4% at the end of February to 5.2% at the end of September 2026. States on the continent have nevertheless raised some 12 billion dollars in Eurobonds this year.

The median budget deficit is expected to be 3.3% of GDP in 2026 and the median public debt 51.7% of GDP. Above all, interest payments alone are absorbing about 12% of median government revenue, excluding grants, over 2025-2027. In some countries, debt service reaches a third of public spending, IOL specifies.

"Per capita growth remains weak"

For the director of the IMF's African Department, the Mauritanian Zeine Zeidane, a former Prime Minister, per capita growth "remains quite weak." At this rate, it would take the region nearly fifty years to double its income, compared to fifteen years for Southeast Asia. He notes that the financing needs of states are monopolizing a large share of available credit, to the detriment of businesses.

Food and climate risks

The forecasts are based on oil at 96 dollars a barrel in 2026, then 87 dollars in 2027, and on fertilizers rising by 26% over one year. Median inflation is expected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, then 5% in 2027. The IMF also fears an El Niño episode of unprecedented intensity in the modern era: prolonged drought in Southern Africa, flooding in the East, and effects on both agriculture and electricity.

Its recommendations: continue fiscal consolidation, set aside a portion of exceptional raw material revenues, target aid at vulnerable households, and preserve productive investment. In other words, as external aid withdraws, the room for maneuver will depend first and foremost on the resources that the continent can mobilize domestically.