Madagascar: El Niño threatens the Deep South, nearly 270,000 children at risk of acute malnutrition

In the Deep South of Madagascar, the poorest region of the country, the World Food Programme (WFP) fears a food crisis of unprecedented scale: approximately 3.7 million people could fall into a 'crisis' level of food insecurity, and 39% of children under five, or nearly 270,000 children, could suffer from acute malnutrition by April. These projections were reported on October 7, 2026, by Africanews, from the villages of Ifotaka, Amboasary-Atsimo, and Manindra.

The lean season, the gap between two harvests, has not yet begun. But the rains are already missing, and the El Niño episode, predicted to be of exceptional intensity, could accelerate the deterioration. 'Unfortunately, there is no rain,' summarizes James Tsirimalaza, 46, a farmer in Manindra, as quoted by Africanews.

Three times more climate hazards in twenty years

In twenty years, Madagascar has endured 35 cyclones, eight floods, and five severe droughts, which is three times more climate hazards than during the previous two decades, according to Tania Goosens, WFP director in Madagascar. The country is among the lowest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world: it is paying a price it did not create.

At the Amboasary-Atsimo hospital, six malnourished children have died since the beginning of 2026, compared to fifteen for the entire year of 2022. The famine of 2021-2022, which the WFP had described as the first attributed to climate change, remains in everyone's memory.

Aid declines as prices rise

The WFP is now reaching only about half of the 720,000 people it planned to assist, and 35,000 children no longer benefit from school canteen meals. In Amboasary-Atsimo, the USAID logo, dismantled in 2025, remains visible on the hospital walls. At the same time, annual food inflation rose from 6.8% in January to 10.4% in July. More than 90% of the inhabitants of the Deep South lived below the threshold of 2.15 dollars per day in 2023, according to the World Bank.

Local solutions are unaffordable

Solutions do exist, however, driven by the inhabitants themselves. Manjomaro Andrianantenaina, 25, financed a well equipped with a solar pump: 'I watch the sun to pump water,' he says. The installation cost him more than two million ariary, about 400 euros, a sum inaccessible to the majority. Eva Razafindrazaka, 51, cannot water her field, which is too far from the collective water point; her grandson is being treated for malnutrition.

Solar irrigation works, but it is not funded at the scale of the needs. The coming months will tell whether the Malagasy state and donors get ahead of the curve rather than just observing it.