Migration: West African arrivals in Europe drop by 59%, crossing distance increases by 750 km

Arrivals in Europe by sea of migrants from West Africa fell by 59% in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with 4,566 people recorded upon arrival, according to data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) published on October 13, 2026, and reported by APA News and Seneweb. The individuals identified mainly come from Mali, Senegal, Guinea, and The Gambia.

The Atlantic route to the Canary Islands accounts for 83% of these arrivals, Seneweb specifies. It is also on this route that the decline is most dramatic: arrivals there dropped by 62% between 2024 and 2025.

Pirogues departing from further and further away

Behind the statistics, the IOM describes a shift, not a disappearance. The strengthening of controls in Morocco, Mauritania, and Senegal has pushed departures further south, toward The Gambia, Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau. The result: approximately 750 additional kilometers of open sea, with some crossings now reaching around 2,200 kilometers, according to figures cited by APA News.

This extension comes at a price. On the Atlantic route, the IOM recorded 1,172 deaths and disappearances in 2024 and 1,215 in 2025, according to APA News; Seneweb, citing the same organization, reports a decline of only 4% in the number of deaths. Both readings converge on the essential point: mortality has not decreased at the same rate as arrivals.

"Pressures are shifting"

The IOM summarizes the phenomenon: a drop in arrivals in one place does not mean that "pressures have disappeared, they are simply shifting." Its Director General, Amy Pope, is calling for greater cooperation between states: "No country can solve this problem alone," she stated, according to APA News.

What these figures really measure

European capitals readily present these declines as proof that the migration control agreements signed with African states are working. The IOM data suggests otherwise: they measure the effectiveness of barriers, not the disappearance of the reasons for leaving. As long as routes lengthen without legal pathways opening up, the cost is transferred onto the bodies of those seeking to depart.

The IOM is calling for the strengthening of regional cooperation and the opening of safe and regular migration pathways. For the countries of origin, the challenge is also domestic: the youth from Mali, Senegal, Guinea, and The Gambia who are embarking have not changed their minds about their future; they have only changed their route.