Mo Ibrahim denounces 'the rise of strongmen': 23 African countries see governance decline

The Mo Ibrahim Foundation published its Index of African Governance (IIAG) on October 31, 2026, covering ten years of development in 54 countries. Africa has made gains in the economy and human development, but has lost ground in security, rights, and participation. The continental score reached 50.1 points out of 100 in 2025, compared to 49.3 in 2016: a gain of 0.8 points over a decade.

Behind this near-stagnation lie two opposing trends: thirty countries are governed better than in 2016, twenty-three have deteriorated, and one remains unchanged. Since the countries in decline are the most populous, slightly more than one in two Africans lives in a country that has regressed, including Nigeria, the DRC, and South Africa.

Infrastructure is advancing, civic space is shrinking

The 'foundations for economic opportunity' have seen the most progress (51.1 points, +3.7), driven by infrastructure (+7.7), mobile telephony (74.2, +16.8), and the internet (33.4, +10.2). Human development remains the highest-rated category (53.2, +2.5). Gender equality is one of the two most improved sub-categories (+4.9): laws against violence against women have gained 14.8 points.

Conversely, security and the rule of law have fallen to 47.8 points (-1.7), in a continuous decline since 2018, while participation, rights, and inclusion have dropped to 48.5 (-1.0). The sharpest declines affect public life: civil society space (46.7, -8.5), freedom of expression (55.1, -7.2), and media freedom (51.4, -5.7).

Coups d'état weigh heavily: of the ten countries that have experienced at least one, eight have deteriorated. Burkina Faso recorded the largest decline (-6.9), ahead of Nigeria (-5.2), Sudan (-3.2), and Tunisia (-3.0). Leading the 2025 rankings are the Seychelles (78.6 points), Mauritius (75.0), and Cape Verde (70.3).

Interviewed by AFP, Mo Ibrahim, the 80-year-old Sudanese-British businessman, links this decline in freedoms to a global climate: 'we are seeing this phenomenon of the rise of strongmen everywhere.' He cited the past year's elections in Tanzania, where security forces are accused of killing protesters, and in Uganda, where opposition leader Bobi Wine was assaulted: 'simply shameful.' He describes Washington's closure of USAID as 'brutal' and calls on the continent to 'rely more on ourselves.'

The data that dictates everything remains: 60% of Africans are under 25, and by 2050, one in three young people in the world will be African. A generation 'much better informed, much better educated' than the previous one, according to Mo Ibrahim, who concedes regarding his own: 'we wasted some opportunities.'