Nigeria: Private sector activity at its highest since February 2022, with a PMI of 56.4

Activity in the Nigerian private sector grew in September 2026 at its fastest pace in over four years. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) published by Stanbic IBTC Bank stood at 56.4, up from 54.3 in August, marking its highest level since February 2022, according to Newsquest NG and FX.co. Above 50, the index signals an expansion in activity; below 50, it indicates a contraction.

The four sectors monitored by the survey are all growing: agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and services. New orders increased for the eighth consecutive month at their strongest rate since February 2022, driven by improved customer demand and the launch of new products. Production followed the same trajectory.

Hiring, but modest

Employment has grown for the sixteenth consecutive month. However, the survey notes that job creation remains modest and that some recruitment is temporary rather than permanent. In other words, the recovery in activity is not yet translating into stable jobs at the same speed—a gap that weighs heavily in a country where young people make up the majority of the workforce.

"General business conditions improved significantly in September," summarizes Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, as quoted by Newsquest NG.

The downside: costs are rising

Input cost inflation reached a three-month high, driven by rising prices for fuel, animal feed, food items, and raw materials. Companies passed this pressure on by raising their selling prices at the fastest rate in the last three months. Purchases of supplies increased sharply to handle the workload, resulting in the strongest stock replenishment since the end of 2021.

The business leaders surveyed expressed greater optimism for the next twelve months, citing expansion plans, expected new clients, and potential export opportunities.

A PMI measures the sentiment and activity reported by a panel of companies: it indicates a direction, not the volume of wealth produced. The growth it signals in Nigeria will need to be confirmed in national accounts and, above all, in household purchasing power, which continues to be eroded by retail price inflation.