Off-grid solar: A market that could grow by 450% by 2035, with Nigeria in the lead

Off-grid solar is becoming one of the continent's greatest industrial opportunities. According to a report by the firm Wood Mackenzie published on September 23, 2026, and shared on October 2 by the Ecofin Agency, the off-grid photovoltaic market in sub-Saharan Africa could grow by 450% by 2035, representing a sixfold increase in volume and several gigawatts of new capacity.

The context is well known: approximately 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still live without reliable access to electricity, and national grids are keeping pace with neither population growth nor industrial demand. However, the report changes the usual narrative: it does not describe a continent waiting for aid, but rather a market where the demand is already present and where supply is becoming competitive.

Nigeria, the primary driver

Nigeria is expected to account for nearly 35% of the region's off-grid installations by 2035, according to Wood Mackenzie. The reason is economic: since the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023, self-generation using diesel has become very expensive. For an industrialist or a merchant, replacing even a portion of their consumption with solar power generates immediate savings. Kenya, meanwhile, is entering a different phase: it is moving from initial electrification to cost-optimized installations as its grid improves.

The DRC, a new hub thanks to mining

The Democratic Republic of Congo is emerging as a hot spot. Since the summer of 2026, the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex has been operating an integrated 233-megawatt solar and storage facility, designed to replace diesel generators in its mining operations. This is an interesting precedent: clean energy supporting the exploitation of African resources, on African soil.

The obstacle, however, is financial. Wood Mackenzie identifies the cost of capital as the "determining constraint": currency depreciation and double-digit interest rates make every project more expensive, even though more than 27 gigawatts of solar modules have already been imported since 2022 and equipment prices are falling. In other words, it is neither the sun nor the demand that is lacking, but rather financing at the right price. Mixed models combining private capital and development funding, as well as "solar-as-a-service" offerings, will be decisive in transforming this potential into kilowatt-hours actually delivered to homes and workshops.