The Nile at the heart of the crisis: Egypt and Ethiopia expel each other's diplomats

Egypt and Ethiopia, two of the continent's oldest nations, have broken the most basic forms of diplomatic courtesy. On October 1, 2026, Addis Ababa ordered Egyptian diplomat Ahmed Moharam Ahmed Soliman to leave Ethiopian territory within 48 hours, without publicly providing a reason. Cairo retaliated on the same day by declaring an advisor from the Ethiopian embassy persona non grata, with the same deadline, according to Africanews and The National.

An official Egyptian source cited by local media described the Ethiopian decision as "regrettable and unjustified." Egypt stated that it acted "in accordance with the principle of reciprocity" and had refrained from commenting on the internal situation of another state, in the name of international law and the United Nations Charter.

The Renaissance Dam in the background

These expulsions did not come out of nowhere. For more than a decade, the two countries have been at odds over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), built on the Blue Nile, which provides more than 80% of the water reaching Egypt, according to The National. Cairo, which draws almost all of its fresh water from the river, considers any reduction in its share a matter of survival. Addis Ababa, for its part, sees the dam as the electrical engine of its development and the affirmation of its right to use its own resources. Two legitimate sovereignties, one single river: this is the entire dilemma of the Nile basin.

A regional escalation

The military context makes everything worse. Ethiopia accuses Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudan of supporting the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which is engaged against the federal government; all three countries deny this. A few days earlier, Addis Ababa had closed the Eritrean embassy and declared ten Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, prompting Asmara to break off diplomatic relations. According to The National, Egypt has also expanded its military presence in countries neighboring Ethiopia, notably in Somalia.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has assured that he is leaving "room for diplomacy," while specifying that this would not be at the expense of the existence of Egypt and its people. The fact remains that these diplomatic channels are closing one by one, at the very moment when the Horn of Africa most needs African mediation. The coming weeks will tell whether the continent's institutions can manage to bring Cairo and Addis Ababa back to the table, or if the Nile will continue to be negotiated through diplomatic suitcases.