Tunisia: 35.4% unemployment among 15-24 year olds and debt at 82% of GDP, the record of Kaïs Saïed

Seven years after Kaïs Saïed came to power, the Tunisian economy remains caught between weak growth, rising inflation, and massive youth unemployment, according to a statistical report published by Al Jazeera on October 15, 2026, based on official Tunisian data.

The figures

Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, far from the approximately 3.3% projected in the 2026 Finance Act. Annual inflation reached 5.6% in September 2026, compared to 5.4% in August and 4.8% in January, according to the National Institute of Statistics. Food and beverage prices climbed by 8.4% over one year, with increases of 16.5% for poultry, 16.3% for fruit, and 14.6% for lamb.

Overall unemployment stood at 14.9% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 15.3% a year earlier and the peak of 17% reached in 2020. However, it affects 35.4% of 15-24 year olds and 26.6% of university graduates: Tunisia is training young people that its labor market cannot absorb.

Debt and fuel

Public debt rose from 67.8% of GDP in 2019 to 84.9% in 2024, before falling back to 82.1% in 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance; the 2026 Finance Act projects it at approximately 83.4%. The Tunisian state is borrowing more and more domestically: economist Ridha Chkoundali estimates domestic debt at approximately 7 billion dinars in both 2024 and 2025, then 11 billion dinars at the beginning of 2026.

The budget has also been hit by oil prices. The 2026 Finance Act was based on Brent crude at approximately 63.30 dollars per barrel; the average reached nearly 92.60 dollars by the end of June. Fuel subsidies absorbed 2.427 billion dinars in the first half of 2026, or 48.6% of the annual budget, while public investment mobilized only 1.665 billion over the same period. In other words: more money to keep prices at the pump down than for construction.

Two interpretations

Houssam Oueslati, a taxi driver, tells Al Jazeera that a canister of motor oil cost about 35 dinars in 2018 compared to nearly 100 dinars now. Ridha Chkoundali emphasizes that growth only benefits households if it translates into production, investment, jobs, and income. The Democratic Current party accuses the government of not facing economic reality and blaming its failures on conspiracies. Conversely, Houssam Ben Ahmed, an activist supporting the president, defends the measures of July 25, 2021, as "an absolute necessity to save the state." The government, for its part, highlights the resilience of the economy.