Nigeria: Agricultural Trade Swings from 740 Billion Surplus to 56 Billion Naira Deficit

Nigeria's agricultural trade swung from a surplus of 740.27 billion naira in the first half of 2025 to a deficit of 56.13 billion naira in the first half of 2026, according to foreign trade statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) analyzed on September 26, 2026, by the Nigerian economic media outlet Nairametrics.

The shift does not stem from a surge in imports, but rather from the collapse of sales abroad. Agricultural exports fell by 33.3% year-on-year, from 2,960 billion to 1,980 billion naira, while imports also decreased by 8.5%, dropping from 2,220 billion to 2,030 billion.

A Brutal Second Quarter

The quarterly breakdown reveals a rapid deterioration. Nigeria still posted an agricultural surplus of 344.65 billion naira from January to March 2026 (1,170 billion in exports against 827.72 billion in imports). The following quarter closed with a deficit of 400.78 billion: exports fell to 802.99 billion while imports climbed to 1,200 billion.

Cocoa, Sesame, Soybeans: Raw Products

The composition of exports for the second quarter of 2026 is telling. Standard quality cocoa beans led the way with 154.31 billion naira, followed by sesame seeds (96.03 billion), superior quality cocoa beans (58.82 billion), soybeans (50.22 billion), soybean flour and meal (36.41 billion), and cut flowers (31.43 billion), according to the NBS.

In other words, Africa's most populous nation sells beans and seeds, and buys processed food. This is the heart of the problem: value addition, industrial jobs, and profit margins are created during processing, and this stage is most often done outside the continent. Several African countries have recently sought to reverse this pattern by making the export of their agricultural or mineral raw materials conditional on initial local processing.

25 Million Nigerians Affected

The social stakes are considerable. Agriculture employed 25.34 million Nigerians in 2023, representing 30.1% of the active population, according to NBS data cited by Nairametrics. Every lost export point translates into income that does not reach rural producing areas.

The figures for the third quarter of 2026, expected in the coming months, will show whether the spring deficit was a temporary setback or the establishment of a trend.