Tigray: UAE supports Addis Ababa, Eritrea appeals to the UN, and the Pretoria agreement falters

Fighting has resumed in the Ethiopian region of Tigray, and the peace agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022 is now under threat, according to a status report published on October 13, 2026, by Al Jazeera. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and allied armed groups are once again clashing with federal forces and their allies. Around them, Red Sea powers are making their moves.

Abu Dhabi chooses Addis Ababa

On September 25, 2026, the United Arab Emirates condemned the attacks attributed to the TPLF against federal forces, the seizure of Tigrayan airports, and the worsening situation in the Afar and Amhara regions, reports Al Jazeera. Emirati Minister of State Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan Al Nahyan affirmed his support for Ethiopia's sovereignty and its federal government, while calling for an end to hostilities. The same media outlet notes that it is unclear whether Abu Dhabi is providing military aid. Emirati interests, however, are well-documented: DP World operates the port of Berbera in Somaliland.

Riyadh silent, Cairo on the defensive

Saudi Arabia has not taken a public stance on the ongoing fighting, according to an October 1, 2026, analysis by the Critical Threats Project cited by Al Jazeera. Yet, Riyadh had attempted mediation earlier in 2026 between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, and in November 2025, according to Chatham House, proposed bringing Ethiopia and Eritrea closer together. In June 2026, the German institute SWP attributed the failure of these efforts to the fact that they did not address Ethiopia's desire for the Eritrean port of Assab.

In September 2026, the Ethiopian army chief, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, accused Egypt and Sudan of supporting armed groups, including the TPLF, without providing evidence. Egyptian diplomatic spokesperson Nader Zaki reaffirmed Cairo's commitment to non-interference without responding directly to this accusation.

A war and access to the sea

Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of sending troops across the border and arming insurgent groups; Eritrea denies this and has requested the intervention of the UN Security Council. In the background lies a question of geography: deprived of a coastline since Eritrean independence in 1993, Ethiopia depends on Djibouti for its trade and is demanding reliable maritime access; Asmara refuses to allow any questioning of its sovereignty.

According to Al Jazeera, none of the powers mentioned have demonstrated the ability to truly influence the TPLF or Asmara. The Pretoria agreement therefore depends primarily on the will of the Ethiopian parties themselves. And the price of its collapse would be paid, once again, by the civilians of Tigray, Afar, and Amhara.